The first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has injected strong hawkish tension into the market. While interest rates were kept on hold, the rate-cut outlook for 2026—long anticipated by the market—has effectively vanished. Instead, a hawkish stance has become clear, with a 66% probability of a rate hike within the year now being priced in.

This 'hawkish pause' is expected to act as a significant brake on risk-asset markets, which had been banking on scenarios involving rate cuts and subsequent liquidity injections. Despite recent internal tailwinds in the crypto sector, such as deregulation, the macroeconomic liquidity environment is shifting in an increasingly unfavorable direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently undergoing a minor correction, consolidating around the $66,900 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 39, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Whether short-term regulatory tailwinds can overcome the macroeconomic pressure of liquidity concerns will be the key variable for the market's future direction. Investors must now prepare for a paradigm shift from a 'rate-cut cycle' to one of 'hawkish holds and potential hikes.'