BTC and SOL Run While ETH Stumbles — Three Reasons for the Diverging Trends

While the cryptocurrency market is generally maintaining a bullish trend, a closer look reveals that the upward momentum varies significantly by asset. As Bitcoin leads the market and Solana, with its vibrant ecosystem, continues its relentless upward trajectory, Ethereum’s momentum is noticeably weakening despite a modest climb. Furthermore, a recent hack of the Ethereum-based lending protocol Term Finance, which resulted in a loss of approximately $8.5 million, has negatively impacted investor sentiment. Although the issue was not a fault of the platform itself, the supply-demand pressure within DeFi has acted as a drag on Ethereum's resilience. This analysis examines the secrets behind the continued momentum of Bitcoin and Solana despite signs of overheating, and identifies the nature of the temporary fatigue Ethereum is experiencing along with potential response criteria.

The Unstoppable Sprint of Bitcoin and Solana vs. Ethereum’s Breath-Catching

Solana and Bitcoin continue to show strong upward momentum as trading volumes increase. In particular, Solana is demonstrating a powerful breakout trend with significant upside volatility. The sharp increase in daily trading volume compared to previous levels has enhanced the credibility of this rally, and trend strength indicators also suggest that buying pressure has firmly taken control of the market. Bitcoin is also maintaining very strong upward momentum. While auxiliary indicators suggest the market has entered an overheated zone, sustained demand, primarily from institutional investors, is absorbing sell pressure and extending the rally.

In contrast, Ethereum shows a noticeably weakened upward trend. While prices have maintained a gentle upward slope recently, the actual internal momentum is softening. As prices climb slowly, the technical indicators reflecting buying strength are trending downward, signaling a potential depletion of the trend. This divergence, where price and technical indicators move in opposite directions, is a classic sign that the market’s buying power is gradually reaching its limits.

On top of this, an unexpected negative event within the ecosystem has further dampened investor sentiment. A recent hack of the Ethereum-based lending protocol Term Finance led to the theft of approximately $8.5 million in assets. While this was not a core vulnerability in the Ethereum network itself, it was enough to freeze short-term sentiment toward the DeFi ecosystem. This combination of psychological headwinds and supply-demand stagnation is deepening the divergence, leaving Ethereum struggling compared to the relentless gains seen in Bitcoin and Solana.

Key Standards to Watch and Response Scenarios

Whether the market ends this divergence and moves toward a synchronized rally, or enters a short-term correction, depends on the defense of key support levels. The most important factor is whether Bitcoin and Solana, which are currently rising steeply, can hold stable above their short-term benchmark: the 20-day moving average. As long as they maintain daily closing prices above this level, the market’s buying momentum can be considered intact.

On the other hand, for Ethereum, which has lost some momentum, we must watch how quickly the market digests the $8.5 million Term Finance hack. Since it was identified as an issue with an individual platform rather than a systemic crisis for the entire ecosystem, the frozen sentiment may simply need time to thaw. If Ethereum finds a bottom without further negative news and rebounds accompanied by volume, it will be a positive signal that warmth is returning to the broader market.

If Bitcoin and Solana break below the aforementioned short-term support levels and selling pressure surges, the current strong bullish scenario could pause, increasing the likelihood of entering a deeper correction phase. In particular, if a break of support is accompanied by a noticeable spike in sell-side volume, priority should be placed on risk management. Rather than chasing prices, now is the time to take a breath and closely monitor whether the major assets can hold their support levels and observe volume trends.