XRP, Downtrend Continues as Swing Low Is Broken

XRP has closed below its previous swing low in a confirmed candle, extending the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. By breaking below the lowest price of the last 20 candles, its price volatility has become notably higher than usual. Furthermore, its relative strength against Bitcoin continues to trend downward, showing underperformance compared to the broader market. While there was an attempt to recover some of the losses by rising above the intraday Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), we should remain cautious about a potential trend reversal, as the price has already closed below the key support of the previous swing low.

Confirmed Indicators and Market Data

Based on confirmed closes, XRP has broken below both the prior swing low and the 20-period low, falling beneath short-term support. The 4-hour ADX currently sits at 33.5, indicating a relatively clear downward trend. However, the 1-hour Relative Volume (RVOL) is stuck at 0.03, suggesting that the price drop occurred amid a wait-and-see sentiment rather than active selling pressure. Meanwhile, the ATR ratio, which measures price volatility, has entered the upper range of its recent distribution, meaning price swings are more significant than usual. Although the price attempted to recover by closing above the intraday VWAP, the established downtrend structure of lower lows makes it essential to monitor whether it can reclaim the lost support level before calling it a trend reversal.

If the daily close establishes itself above 1.3444, the recovery trend could continue; however, if it drops below 1.2546, the adjustment range may widen toward the 1.2002 level.

If the 4-hour close exceeds 1.3271, a short-term rebound attempt may continue. If it fails to hold 1.2420 and falls, support at 1.2355 should be checked first.

Structural Direction and Indicator Significance

With confirmed closes breaking below both the previous swing low and the 20-period low, the downtrend structure of lower highs and lower lows has become clear on the chart. Sell pressure remains dominant across the broader market, as evidenced by the lack of assets trading above their 50-day moving average, and XRP’s relative performance against Bitcoin remains weak. While the price briefly rose above the VWAP and volatility has increased to the high end of its recent range, actual short-term trading volume is extremely dry. As this phase is characterized by higher volatility with thin market participation, it is necessary to calmly observe the support reaction at key price levels to see if the decline will continue smoothly or if a temporary retracement will occur.