Bitcoin (BTC): Donchian Low Breakout and 4H ADX 40.9 Downtrend Structure

Since the previous update, Bitcoin has continued its downward trend, closing below the previous 20-period low on a confirmed basis. While the price structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows remains intact, the 4-hour chart ADX stands at 40.9, indicating that the strength of the current trend remains high. The downward direction is confirmed not by the ADX value itself, but by the candle formation consistently posting lower highs and lower lows. The ATR ratio, which reflects recent candle volatility, also remains in the upper range, indicating increased price fluctuations. Furthermore, the MACD histogram remains in positive territory but is narrowing, suggesting a slowdown in rebound momentum. Therefore, until the price can close above the high of the previous rebound, the market will likely continue to face the weight of the downward price structure.

Increased Volatility and Leverage Liquidations

Since the last post, Bitcoin's confirmed closing price broke below the previous 20-period low, continuing the established downtrend. Additionally, the ATR% has risen to the upper end of its recent distribution, causing a noticeable increase in candle volatility, while the MACD histogram is shrinking in its positive zone, signaling a slowdown in short-term rebound momentum. The 4-hour ADX at 40.9 indicates a strong prevailing trend; the downward direction is confirmed by the price structure of consecutive lower highs and lows rather than the ADX number itself. Meanwhile, news reports indicate that $1.03595 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across the crypto market over the last 24 hours, highlighting a massive cleanup in the derivatives market triggered by the breach of lower ranges and heightened volatility.

Binance BTC/USDT spot. Confirmed daily close 11-09 00:00 UTC (11-09 09:00 KST). Ongoing candles are not included. The confirmed close of 74851.44 is below the lows of 74888.00, 76325.98, and 79220.74. If closes continue to occur below those lows, the breakout remains in effect.

Trend Strength and Downward Pressure

Since the previous post, Bitcoin's confirmed close fell below the previous 20-period low, extending the breakout. The 4-hour ADX is at 40.9, indicating that the current trend's strength is still significant, though this indicator does not dictate the direction. The trend direction is confirmed by the price structure of continuous lower highs and lower lows, and the ATR%, a volatility indicator, remains in the upper range, reflecting increased price instability. Moreover, the MACD histogram is narrowing while in positive territory, showing a decline in rebound momentum. Thus, unless the price closes above the high of the previous rebound to break the lower-high structure, the situation is interpreted as one where technical downward pressure prevails within a strong trend.

Sustained Downtrend and Observation Criteria

The condition for breaking the rebound resistance mentioned in the previous post has not been met, and the environment remains dominated by technical downward pressure. Once again, the confirmed closing price broke below the previous 20-period low, maintaining a downtrend of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The massive liquidation of leveraged positions in the derivatives market, the surge in volume, and the macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the U.S. inflation data all point in the same direction. Unless the 4-hour closing price moves above $74,888.00 to break the current lower-low price flow, the interpretation of a downward-biased market remains unchanged.