XRP Downtrend Extension: Donchian Channel Breakdown and Upside Expectations in Futures

Since the last update, the confirmed closing price of XRP has fallen below the previous 20-bar low, breaking downward. The 4-hour ADX stands at 53.8, indicating strong trend momentum aligned to the downside as the price continues to record lower highs and lower lows. Meanwhile, 1-hour Relative Volume (RVOL) spiked to 4.69, marking a candle with increased volatility. In the derivatives market, the 1-hour Long/Short account ratio for the OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetual remains heavily skewed toward longs at 4.02 (11-10 23:00 KST), and the 1-hour Top Trader Long/Short ratio for the Binance XRPUSDT perpetual stands at 2.44 (11-10 22:00 KST), highlighting a divergence between the falling price trend and the bullish expectations of futures participants.

Channel Breakdown and Long Skew in Derivatives

Since the last post, XRP has broken below the lower bound of the Donchian channel, with its closing price dropping below the previous 20-bar low. During this breakdown, 1-hour Relative Volume (RVOL) increased significantly to 4.69, and the closing price settled at 43% of the candle's range. The 4-hour ADX at 53.8 points to continued strong trend momentum, while the structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows confirms the downward direction. On the other hand, derivatives data shows a divergence: the 1-hour Top Trader Long/Short ratio for the Binance XRPUSDT perpetual is 2.44 (Nov 10, 22:00 KST), and the 1-hour Long/Short account ratio for the OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetual is 4.02 (Nov 10, 23:00 KST), indicating that participants' upside expectations clash with the bearish price action.

Binance XRP/USDT Spot. Confirmed 1-hour candle close at 11-10 14:00 UTC (11-10 23:00 KST). Ongoing candle is excluded. The price fell to a close of $1.0651, dropping below both the $1.0899 and $1.0840 support levels mentioned in the previous post. Downward pressure may persist unless the price recovers to close above the broken $1.0751 level; a close above this zone is required to expect a short-term stabilization.

Downward Pressure vs. Participant Expectations

Since the last post, the confirmed candle close has dipped below the previous 20-bar low, breaking the Donchian channel lower bound. With a 4-hour ADX of 53.8 indicating strong momentum, the price continues its downward trend by recording lower highs and lower lows. As the 1-hour Relative Volume (RVOL) expanded to 4.69, the close settled at 43% of the candle's range, reflecting dominant short-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, in the derivatives market, the last funding rate for the Binance XRPUSDT perpetual was 0.0093% (Nov 10, 17:00 KST), and the 4-hour Long/Short account ratio for the OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetual remains highly skewed toward longs at 4.02 (Nov 10, 21:00 KST), creating a contradiction between the declining price and the bullish sentiment of market participants.

Closing Price Conditions for Structural Reversal

The bearish price structure and long-side skew in the futures market identified in the previous post persist. The price is continuing its downtrend as the close remains below the Donchian channel lower bound, with lower highs and lower lows. While the capital outflow from spot ETFs aligns with this downward pressure, the long bias in the derivatives market remains a factor that could trigger additional volatility by conflicting with the price structure. To invalidate this bearish outlook, the 1-hour candle must close above $1.1073, or the 4-hour candle must decisively close above the daily VWAP.