ETH Swing Low Breakout Extension and Derivatives/News Trends Check

Since the previous update, Ethereum has further breached the previous 20-period low and the confirmed swing low in terms of confirmed candle closes, extending its bearish price structure. The 4-hour ADX stands at 49.7, indicating high trend strength, and the direction is confirmed as bearish not by the indicator value itself, but by the price structure of continuously lowering highs and lows. The Binance 1-hour confirmed close was $2,104.63, remaining below the reference lows of $2,108.14 and $2,117.01, with volatility increasing alongside a relative volume (RVOL) of 5.63. In the derivatives market, the 4-hour long/short ratio for the OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP perpetual is observed at 3.77, skewed toward long positions. Additionally, $382 million in positions were liquidated in the derivatives market over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $295 million, and reports indicate that Ethereum contract liquidations exceeded those of Bitcoin (Source: TokenPost https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/436002?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). In the short term, we need to calmly observe whether the current broken bearish structure persists until the Binance 1-hour confirmed close rises above the reference high of $2,132.07.

Indicator Strength and Derivatives/News Market Reaction

Based on confirmed candles, the 4-hour ADX has risen to 49.7, showing strong trend intensity; the direction is confirmed not by the indicator value, but by the bearish price structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. In the derivatives market, the 4-hour long/short ratio for the OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP perpetual remains skewed toward longs at 3.77. Furthermore, according to TokenPost, $382 million in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority at $295 million (Source: TokenPost https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/436002?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). The concentration of long positions and the burden of liquidation confirmed amidst high trend intensity support the market flow of the current extending bearish price structure.

Binance ETH/USDT Spot. Confirmed 4-hour candle close 11-10 16:00 UTC (11-11 01:00 KST). Candles in progress are excluded. The confirmed close at 2024.22 is below the lows of 2060.00 and 2223.15, and below the high of 2246.00. A close above the high of 2246.00 is required to open up the upside. If closes below that low continue, the breakout remains in effect.

Binance ETH/USDT Spot. Confirmed daily candle close 11-10 00:00 UTC (11-10 09:00 KST). Candles in progress are excluded. The confirmed close at 2123.60 is below the lows of 2174.08 and 2282.46, and above the low of 2060.00. A close below the 2060.00 low would trigger a breakout.

Intensifying Downward Pressure and the Chain Effect of Long Liquidations

Since the last update, the 4-hour ADX has risen to 49.7, further solidifying the existing trend strength. The ADX figure itself only indicates the strength of the trend, and the direction is confirmed as bearish through the price structure of the confirmed candles, which are making consecutive lower highs and lower lows. In the derivatives market, the 4-hour long/short ratio for the OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP perpetual is 3.77, indicating that the skew toward long accounts persists. As reported, $382 million in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with $295 million being long positions, and ETH contract liquidations exceeding BTC (Source: https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/436002?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss), suggesting that forced liquidations coinciding with the low breakout within a long-skewed derivatives structure may have acted as additional selling pressure.

Structure Maintenance and Reversal Conditions

The condition of remaining below the reference price noted in the previous post still holds. The confirmed candle closes are continuing the bearish price structure of lowering highs and lows by consecutively falling below the previous swing low and the 20-period low. The news flow regarding derivatives market positioning, continued long liquidations, and macro inflationary pressures also points in the same direction as the current bearish price structure. This interpretation will change if the Binance 1-hour candle close finishes above the reference high of $2,132.07.