Checking Solana (SOL) Downtrend Extension amid Increased Volatility and Derivatives Long Liquidation Pressure

Since the last post, the 1-hour ATR% moved into the upper range of recent distribution, leading to increased price volatility. With Relative Volume (RVOL) at 4.16 and the closing price at $84.13—which is in the bottom 25% of the candle range—the bearish price structure persists, remaining below previous lows such as $84.20. According to TokenPost, $9.2 million in long positions were liquidated within one hour during this process, pushing the price down to the $82.22 level (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436005?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). In the derivatives market, the 1-hour and 4-hour account long/short ratio for the OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP perpetual remains heavily skewed toward long positions at 3.79.

Increased Trading Volume and Derivatives Indicator Movements

Following the previous update, the volatility indicator ATR% has entered the upper range of its recent distribution, expanding price swings. The confirmed 1-hour candle recorded a Relative Volume (RVOL) of 4.16, with the closing price staying in the bottom 25% of the range, signaling selling dominance. In the derivatives market, both the 1-hour and 4-hour account long/short ratios for the OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP perpetual are at 3.79, maintaining a long bias exceeding 3. Furthermore, according to a TokenPost report (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436005?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss)에), $9.2 million in long positions were liquidated within an hour; this forced liquidation in an environment crowded with leveraged longs is a key trend observed alongside the downward volatility.

Binance SOL/USDT Spot. 1-hour candle closed Nov 10 16:00 UTC (Nov 11 01:00 KST). Ongoing candle not included. The closing price of 82.3900 is below the lows of 82.6100, 85.5100, and 86.1500. If candles continue to close below these lows, the breakdown remains in effect.

Binance SOL/USDT Spot. 4-hour candle closed Nov 10 16:00 UTC (Nov 11 01:00 KST). Ongoing candle not included. The closing price of 82.3000 is below the lows of 84.2000, 85.0200, and 88.7300. If candles continue to close below these lows, the breakdown remains in effect.

The Impact of Leverage Liquidation Amid High Trend Strength

Since the last post, the 4-hour ADX has risen to 42, further strengthening the trend. The direction of the trend follows a bearish price structure of lower highs and lower lows. With the volatility indicator ATR% entering the upper range, price fluctuations have intensified, and the confirmed candle with a 1-hour Relative Volume (RVOL) of 4.16 showed a close in the bottom 25% of the range, confirming selling pressure. According to TokenPost, $9.2 million in long positions were liquidated during a 2.39% price drop in just one hour (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436005?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). In the derivatives market, the top trader long/short ratio for Binance SOLUSDT perpetual is 2.20, and the account long/short ratio for OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP perpetual is 3.79, indicating that a long bias still persists. Unless the bearish price structure is reversed, the market remains in an environment where downward pressure from the unwinding of leveraged long positions could continue.

Maintenance of the Existing Bearish Structure and Criteria

The breakout below the previous lows and the bearish price structure of lower highs and lower lows noted in the previous post remain intact, even with the increased volatility. The confirmed closing price below the previous low continues to support a sell-dominant price structure. The market's inability to turn around despite the long bias in derivatives, liquidation flows, and ecosystem-related good news also points in the same direction as the current bearish price structure. This bearish outlook will change when the 1-hour candle closes above the previous low of $84.2000.