Checking ETH's Further Breakdown Below Previous Lows and Updates on Derivatives and News

Since the previous post, the Binance 4-hour candle closed at $2,024.22, below the previous low of $2,060.00, marking a further breakdown of the swing low. With volatility (ATR%) rising toward the higher end of its recent distribution, the 4-hour ADX remains high at 49.7, confirming a downtrend through the price structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. In the derivatives market, the 4-hour and 1-hour long/short account ratio for OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP is at 3.79, with long accounts heavily skewed above 3. Regarding the network, news broke that the Ethereum Layer 2 Linea has activated a feature to block aggressive transactions before they are recorded on the block (Source: TokenPost https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/blockchain/436103?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). For now, it is necessary to calmly observe whether this bearish price structure continues until the 4-hour closing price climbs above the reference high of $2,246.00.

Derivatives Market Indicators and News Trends

Since the previous post, the Binance ETH/USDT spot 4-hour closing price dropped to $2,024.22, extending the bearish structure below the previous low of $2,060.00. The 4-hour ADX is at 49.7, indicating a strong trend, and the direction is confirmed to the downside by the price structure lowering its highs and lows. In the derivatives market, the OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP 4-hour account long/short ratio is at 3.79, showing a continued heavy skew toward long positions. Meanwhile, it was reported that $60,000 in long positions and $1.63 million in short positions were liquidated over the past hour (Source: TokenPost https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436117?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss), and foreign media also reported that liquidation and bearish pressure spread across the market following the release of U.S. inflation data (Source: Brave New Coin https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/us-inflation-data-pressures-crypto-market-as-bitcoin-breaks-below-73k-support).

Binance ETH/USDT spot. 1-hour candle closed at 11-10 19:00 UTC (11-11 04:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. Remaining below the previous reference high of 2132.07, the closing price has dropped to 2044.42. Further closings below the 2006.00 low will continue the breakdown trend, and a move above 2109.09 is needed to look for a potential short-term rebound.

Binance ETH/USDT spot. 4-hour candle closed at 11-10 16:00 UTC (11-11 01:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. The closing price of 2024.22 is below the lows of 2060.00 and 2223.15, and below the high of 2246.00. A close above the 2246.00 high is required to open up further upside. If it continues to close below that low, the breakdown remains in effect.

Interpreting Market Reactions Amidst Bearish Pressure

Since the last post, the Binance ETH/USDT spot 4-hour closing price fell to $2,024.22, extending the bearish price structure below the reference low of $2,060.00. As the candles continue to set lower highs and lower lows, a clear skew toward buying is observed in the derivatives market. The OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP 1-hour account long/short ratio is at 3.79 (above 3), and the Binance ETHUSDT perpetual top trader 1-hour position long/short ratio is at 1.84. Although the last Binance ETHUSDT perpetual funding rate was -0.0021% and the next expected rate is -0.0044% (indicating short-term short pressure), the long bias among accounts and top traders creates an environment that could lead to additional liquidation if technical rebounds are delayed. As it is confirmed that market-wide liquidation pressure has increased following the U.S. inflation data (Source: Brave New Coin https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/us-inflation-data-pressures-crypto-market-as-bitcoin-breaks-below-73k-support), it is necessary to calmly monitor the downside volatility that this positional bias might induce until the Binance 4-hour closing price rises above the reference high of $2,246.00.

Conditions to Monitor

As it failed to surpass the short-term reference high of $2,132.07 mentioned in the previous post, the bearish structure conditions remain unchanged. This 4-hour candle also continued the bearish price structure by dipping further below the previous low, and the long skew in derivatives and market contraction following the U.S. inflation data release align with this trend. If the Binance 4-hour closing price rises and closes above the reference high of $2,246.00, this bearish interpretation will be invalidated.