XRP Downtrend Persists Amid ADX 56.9 and Long-Position Skew in Derivatives

Since our last update, XRP's closing price has dropped below the daily VWAP, continuing a downward structure of lower highs and lower lows. The 4-hour ADX is at 56.9, signaling strong trend momentum, with the direction pointing downward in line with the lower highs and lows. While ATR% (a volatility metric) remains in the upper range, indicating heightened price swings, the narrowing negative width of the MACD histogram suggests some cooling in bearish momentum. Meanwhile, in the derivatives market as of November 11, 05:00 KST, the 1-hour long/short ratio for OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetuals recorded 3.45, and the 1-hour top trader long/short ratio for Binance XRPUSDT perpetuals stood at 2.35, indicating a persistent long bias that runs counter to the bearish price action.

Expanded Volatility and Market Environment

Since the previous post, the ATR% volatility metric has entered the upper range, reflecting increased price swings. In the derivatives market, the Binance XRPUSDT perpetual 1-hour top trader long/short ratio hit 2.35 (11-10 20:00 UTC / 11-11 05:00 KST), while the 1-hour long/short ratio for OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetuals also stayed above 3 at 3.45 (11-10 20:00 UTC / 11-11 05:00 KST), showing continued long-position crowding despite the bearish trend. Meanwhile, TokenPost reported that higher-than-expected U.S. October CPI data placed downward pressure on the broader crypto market, including Bitcoin and XRP (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436079?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss).

Binance XRP/USDT Spot. Finalized 1-hour candle closing 11-10 20:00 UTC (11-11 05:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. As the closing price remains below the 1.0899 low, a close below 1.0311 could extend the downward trend. A close above 1.1063 is required to signal a potential short-term rebound.

Binance XRP/USDT Spot. Finalized 4-hour candle closing 11-10 20:00 UTC (11-11 05:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. The 1.0416 close is below the 1.0764 and 1.1500 lows, and above the 1.0311 low. A close below 1.0311 would open the door for further downside.

Trend and Sentiment Indicators

The 4-hour ADX has risen to 56.9, further strengthening the trend. The trend direction points downward, consistent with the structure of consecutively lower highs and lower lows, while the ATR% remains high, indicating a volatile environment. Additionally, with the price closing below the daily VWAP and 0% of assets trading above their EMA50, the market is facing significant bearish pressure. However, the narrowing of the MACD histogram's negative width suggests a potential deceleration in short-term momentum, and as Santiment (https://coinness.com/news/1175110)가) suggests, the current state of fear among retail investors could serve as a technical condition that keeps the possibility of a rebound open.

Current Conditions and Key Levels

The bearish price structure and the long-position skew in the derivatives market identified in the previous post persist. The spot price continues its downtrend, repeatedly making lower highs and lower lows while staying below key levels. Macro factors—such as U.S. inflation concerns and widespread long liquidations across the market—along with the unresolved long skew in futures, all point in the same direction as the current price structure. A 4-hour candle closing above the previous swing high of $1.1699 would invalidate this bearish outlook.