Solana (SOL) Price Analysis: Maintaining Downtrend Amid Increased Volatility and Derivatives Skew

Since the last update, the ATR% on the closing candles has risen into the upper distribution range, indicating increased price volatility. On the Binance SOL/USDT spot market, the 4-hour closing price settled at $82.30, staying below the previous low of $84.20. The 1-hour closing price also settled at $82.39, below the $82.61 mark, continuing the bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows. The 4-hour ADX is at 44, suggesting the bearish trend strength remains intact. In the derivatives market, the 1-hour and 4-hour long/short account ratio for OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP is at 3.73, indicating a persistent, heavy skew toward long positions.

Observations on Indicators and the Derivatives Market

Since the last update, the Binance SOL/USDT spot 4-hour closing price settled at $82.30, dropping below the previous low of $84.20. The 1-hour closing price also settled at $82.39, confirming a bearish structure where price continues to make lower lows. The 4-hour ADX is at 44, signaling strong trend intensity in a bearish direction defined by lower highs and lower lows. While the MACD histogram's negative width is narrowing, suggesting a potential slowdown in short-term bearish momentum, the ATR% remains in the upper distribution range, meaning price volatility stays high. In the derivatives market, the 1-hour and 4-hour long/short account ratio for OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP remains at 3.73, showing a heavy skew toward long positions. According to TokenPost, $609.4 million worth of leveraged positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours, with 83.33% of that amount coming from long positions (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/briefing/436137?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). Meanwhile, TokenPost also reported that Solana ETFs saw a net outflow of $31.9 million over two trading days on the 6th and 9th (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/436113?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss).

Binance SOL/USDT spot. 1-hour closing candle at 11-10 21:00 UTC (11-11 06:00 KST). Current incomplete candles are excluded. The downtrend continues as the closing price remains below the $85.5100 low, maintaining short-term downward pressure. A close below $81.3400 would signal a further breach of lows, while a move above the $86.6100 closing level could signal a break in the short-term bearish structure.

Interpretation of Price Structure and Market Participant Positioning

Since the last update, the narrowing negative width of the MACD histogram suggests a deceleration in bearish momentum. However, with the 4-hour ADX at 44, the trend remains strongly bearish, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Across the broader market, the percentage of assets above their 50-day EMA is 0%, and the relative performance against Bitcoin remains weak, limiting the potential for a structural rebound. In the derivatives market, the 1-hour and 4-hour long/short account ratio for OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP is both at 3.73, maintaining a buy-skew above 3. As TokenPost reported, $609.4 million in leverage was liquidated in the crypto market over the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 83.33% of that (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/briefing/436137?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss), indicating that an environment skewed toward long positions is highly susceptible to further cascading liquidations, which could exacerbate downward volatility.

Criteria for Monitoring the Current Scenario

The conditions noted in the last update—the breach of previous lows and the long skew in the derivatives market—remain in effect. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour closing prices remain below previous lows, continuing the bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows. The long skew in derivatives, the ETF net outflows, and the broader market's liquidation pressure following the inflation data release all point in the same direction. If the 4-hour closing price settles above the previous low of $84.2000, it would invalidate this bearish-focused interpretation.