Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test support in the $73,000 range amid a bearish price structure

Since the last post, the final Bitcoin closing price has dipped below the daily volume-weighted average price (VWAP). On the 4-hour chart, the ADX is at 45.6, indicating strong trend intensity, and its direction is confirmed by a bearish price structure characterized by consecutive lower highs and lower lows. With the recent entry of ATR% into the upper distribution range, price volatility has increased. While news was reported via TokenPost (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436200?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss)를) that MARA Holdings sold 13,597 BTC since the end of the third quarter to repay collateralized loans, this report cannot be definitively cited as the sole cause of the current candle movement. The key to determining the trend right now is whether the bearish price structure continues below the daily VWAP or if the closing price recovers above this baseline, thereby reversing the short-term downward pressure.

Market indicators and key news flows

Since the previous post, the 4-hour chart's ADX has been recorded at 45.6, confirming that the existing trend remains strong. While the ADX value itself shows only the strength of the trend, not the direction, the price structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows indicates that the bearish momentum is being maintained. Meanwhile, according to TokenPost (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436200?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss)에), news broke that MARA Holdings sold 13,597 BTC since the end of Q3 to fully repay $750 million in collateralized loans. However, the timing of this report coinciding with market movements does not mean it can be concluded as the direct cause for the deviation from the price structure.

Binance BTC/USDT spot. Final daily close 11-11 00:00 UTC (11-11 09:00 KST). Ongoing candles are not included. The closing price of 73796.06 is below the lows of 76325.98 and 79220.74, but above the low of 73510.00. A close below the 73510.00 low would open the door to further downside.

Interpreting price structure and news reactions

Since the last post, the Bitcoin closing price has fallen below the daily VWAP. With the ratio of assets trading above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) across the market dropping to 0%, the 4-hour ADX is at 45.6, indicating that the bearish trend of consecutive lower highs and lower lows is being maintained. ATR%, which represents volatility, has also entered the upper range of its distribution, leading to increased price swings. Additionally, reports of inflationary pressures appeared via TokenPost (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/436208?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss)를), followed by news from TokenPost (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/breaking/436200?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss) regarding MARA Holdings' sale of 13,597 BTC to repay loans, which heightened market caution. However, the coincidence of specific news timing with price action should not be assumed as the sole cause of the decline. The closing price slipping below the daily VWAP and the candlestick structure of consistently lowering support levels are the objective basis for the current dominance of selling pressure.

Things to watch

The conditions noted in the previous post—the close below the previous low and the maintenance of the bearish price structure—remain in effect. Within a price structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows, the price remains below the daily volume-weighted average price (VWAP), and the strong trend intensity on the 4-hour chart aligns with this downward trajectory. Furthermore, MARA Holdings' BTC sales, the transition to weakness in on-chain indicators, and macroeconomic news regarding inflationary pressures all point in the same direction as the current price structure. If the 1-hour candle closing price rises above the previous high of $74,996.01, the short-term bearish structure will be broken, necessitating a reassessment of the current bearish outlook.