Review of Ethereum (ETH) Price Action Near Previous Lows and Trends in Derivatives and News

Since the previous post, the 4-hour ADX has risen to 52.6, further strengthening the trend momentum. While the ADX value only indicates trend strength, the direction is confirmed to be downward by the price structure itself, with the Binance 4-hour confirmed closing price staying at $2,024.22—below the previous low of $2,060.00—and continuously making lower highs and lower lows. The 1-hour confirmed closing price is also at $2,044.42, failing to break the previous reference high of $2,132.07 and remaining below the Donchian 20-period low and the daily VWAP. In the derivatives market, the 4-hour and 1-hour account long/short ratios for the OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP perpetual are at 3.56, with long bias exceeding 3, and the previous settlement funding rate was -0.0037% (11-11 00:00 UTC). Satoshi Index data also shows that the 24-hour long position ratio among top traders has dropped to 10%, indicating bearish sentiment centered on short positions (Source: https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/436225?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). For now, it is necessary to calmly observe whether the downward price structure formed by the breach of the low continues until the 4-hour confirmed closing price returns above the reference high of $2,246.00.

Indicators and Trends in Derivatives and News

Since the last post, the confirmed closing price has fallen below the daily VWAP. With volatility (ATR%) widening toward the upper end of its recent distribution, the 4-hour ADX points to strong trend intensity at 52.6, and the downward direction is confirmed by the price structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. In the derivatives market, the account long/short ratio for the OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP perpetual remains at 3.56 on both the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, indicating persistent long-account bias. According to Satoshi Index, it was reported that the 24-hour long position ratio for top traders dropped to 10%, and the 7-day and 30-day groups are also maintaining short position ratios of around 90% (Source: https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/cryptocurrency/436225?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss). Additionally, TokenPost reported that US crypto ETFs saw $1.5 billion in net outflows (Source: https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/insights/436156?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss).

Binance ETH/USDT Spot. Confirmed daily candle closing at 11-11 00:00 UTC (11-11 09:00 KST). Ongoing candle is not included. The confirmed closing price of 2053.21 is below the lows of 2060.00, 2174.08, and 2282.46. If closings below these lows continue, the breakdown remains in effect.

The Meaning of Downward Price Structure and Position Bias

Since the previous post, the 4-hour ADX has risen to 52.6, solidifying the downward price structure of lower highs and lower lows. While the confirmed closing price remains below the previous 20-period low and the daily VWAP, the volatility (ATR%) is also at the higher end of its recent distribution, leading to increased price instability. In the derivatives market, the previous settlement funding rate for the Binance ETHUSDT perpetual (-0.0048%) and the next estimated rate (-0.0047%) are both negative, while the 4-hour account long/short ratio for the OKX ETH-USDT-SWAP perpetual is at 3.56, well above 3. Even with negative funding rates putting cost pressure on short positions, the persistent account-level bias toward long positions suggests that when the rebound is capped, it is more likely to lead to long position liquidations or sell-offs rather than new buying, creating an environment that increases downward pressure rather than supporting a floor.

Current Conditions and Observation Criteria

The conditions under which the downward price structure continues while staying below the reference high identified in the previous post remain in place. As the price structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows persists, the strong trend momentum continues to weigh toward the downside. The confirmed market sentiment, including the long-account bias in the derivatives market, is aligned with this bearish structure. If the Binance 4-hour confirmed closing price rises above the reference high of $2,246.00, it may provide grounds to reassess the current downward structure.