XRP Downtrend Extension: 20-Period Low Breakout and Long Skew

Since the previous post, the confirmed XRP closing price has dipped below the previous 20-period low, confirming a downward breakout. With the price structure clearly continuing to set lower highs and lower lows, the 4-hour ADX has climbed to 58.1, indicating strong trend strength in the downward direction. While the ATR%, a volatility indicator, remains in the upper range of its recent distribution, suggesting heightened price volatility, the negative width of the MACD histogram is narrowing, signaling a partial softening in short-term bearish momentum. Meanwhile, in the derivatives market as of November 11, 09:00 (KST), the 1-hour long/short ratio for the OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetual contract is at 3.63, and the Binance XRPUSDT perpetual 1-hour top trader long/short ratio is at 2.34, showing that a bullish skew persists despite the price weakness.

Indicators and Derivatives Market Trends

Since the previous post, the confirmed XRP closing price has remained below the 20-period low, continuing the downtrend structure. The 4-hour ADX has risen to 58.1, making the trend strength even more pronounced, with the direction pointing downward in line with the succession of lower highs and lows. While the ATR% remains in the upper range, indicating sustained high volatility, the narrowing MACD histogram suggests a potential cooling of bearish momentum. Meanwhile, as of November 11, 09:00 (KST), the 1-hour and 4-hour long/short ratios for the OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetual contract are at 3.63, and the Binance XRPUSDT perpetual 1-hour and 4-hour top trader long/short ratios are at 2.34, maintaining a high bullish skew despite the price weakness.

Binance XRP/USDT Spot. Confirmed 1-hour candle close 11-10 22:00 UTC (11-11 07:00 KST). Ongoing candles are not included. The confirmed closing price remains below the 1.0899 low; a close below the 1.0311 low could open up further downside, while a move back above the 1.1063 high is required for a shift to a short-term rebound.

Binance XRP/USDT Spot. Confirmed 4-hour candle close 11-10 20:00 UTC (11-11 05:00 KST). Ongoing candles are not included. With the confirmed closing price remaining below the 1.0764 and 1.1500 lows, a confirmed close below the 1.0311 range low could extend the downtrend further.

Volatility Expansion and Position Divergence

Since the previous post, the confirmed XRP close has dropped below the 20-period low. The 4-hour ADX has increased to 58.1, maintaining very strong trend intensity, and the trend direction follows the structure of descending highs and lows. While the ATR% is in its upper range, indicating heightened volatility, the MACD histogram's narrowing negative width provides signs of slowing bearish momentum. However, these signs do not necessarily imply a trend reversal. As of November 11, 09:00 (KST), the Binance XRPUSDT perpetual 1-hour top trader long/short ratio stands at 2.34, and the OKX XRP-USDT-SWAP perpetual 1-hour long/short ratio is at 3.63, reflecting a continued bullish skew. This divergence between price weakness below key support levels and the concentration of long positions in the futures market could increase pressure to liquidate positions if a rebound is delayed, potentially triggering further volatility.

Conditions for Trend Maintenance and Reversal

The criteria for the downward price structure identified in the previous post remain intact as the confirmed close stays below the prior low. In this session, the confirmed closing price fell below the 20-period low, continuing the lower-high and lower-low structure. The bullish skew in the derivatives market points in the opposite direction of this price structure. This bearish outlook shifts to a short-term rebound scenario if the 1-hour candle closes above 1.1063, while a 4-hour candle close below 1.0311 confirms further downside.