Solana (SOL) Bearish Structure: Breakdown of 20-Period Lows and Derivatives Skew Analysis

Since the last post, the closing price on the confirmed candle has fallen below the previous 20-period low. Based on Binance SOL/USDT spot, the bearish price structure of consecutively lower highs and lower lows continues, and the 4-hour ADX is at 45.4, indicating that the trend strength of this bearish structure remains robust. With ATR% in the upper range of its recent distribution, price volatility has widened. In the derivatives market, the 1-hour and 4-hour long/short ratio for the OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP perpetual stands at 3.65, showing that the skew toward long accounts persists. If a confirmed candle closes below $81.3400, the downward trend will likely continue, whereas a close above $86.6100 could undermine the short-term bearish structure.

Trend Strength and Derivatives/News Trends

Since the last post, the Binance SOL/USDT spot closing price has broken below the previous 20-period low. The 4-hour ADX is at 45.4, indicating strong trend strength, and the price structure of consecutively lower highs and lows defines the downward direction. In the derivatives market, the Binance SOLUSDT perpetual settlement funding rate as of the 11th at 00:00 UTC is 0.0057% with a top trader long/short ratio of 2.18, while the OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP perpetual shows a funding rate of -0.0011% and a 4-hour account long/short ratio of 3.65, signaling a continued bias toward long accounts. In external news, it was reported that Forward Industries, the largest US-listed holder of Solana, purchased an additional 226,000 SOL (https://coinness.com/news/1175126)와) and that the activation of the Agave 4.5 validator client mainnet is scheduled to begin on December 14th (https://www.tokenpost.kr/news/blockchain/436199?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss)이) was announced.

Binance SOL/USDT spot. Confirmed daily candle close 11-11 00:00 UTC (11-11 09:00 KST). Current candles are excluded. The confirmed closing price of 83.3500 is below the lows of 85.0200 and 98.6200, and below the high of 98.1400. A close above the high of 98.1400 is required to open up the upside, while closures below those lows maintain the breakdown.

Interpretation of Increased Volatility and Downward Pressure

Since the last post, the confirmed candle close has broken below the previous 20-period low. While ATR% has entered the upper range of its recent distribution, signaling increased volatility, the negative values in the MACD histogram have shrunk, suggesting that short-term bearish momentum is slightly slowing. However, the 4-hour ADX at 45.4 indicates a strong trend, and the price structure of lower highs and lower lows continues to support the bearish direction, making it difficult to conclude that the trend has reversed based on momentum slowing alone. In the derivatives market, the long/short ratio for OKX SOL-USDT-SWAP perpetual (1-hour and 4-hour) remains above 3 at 3.65, and the top trader long/short ratio for Binance SOLUSDT remains at 2.18, confirming persistent buying skew. Ultimately, in an environment of increased volatility, the market remains dominated by downward pressure coupled with the burden of accumulated long positions until a clear swing reversal signal is confirmed.

Future Checkpoints

The bearish price structure and the long position skew in the derivatives market mentioned in the previous post remain consistent. As the closing price continues to fall below the previous low, maintaining the lower-highs-and-lower-lows structure, the buying bias in the derivatives market and news flow continue to align with this downward pressure. If a confirmed 1-hour candle closes below $81.3400, a further breakdown of the low is expected; conversely, a move above $86.6100 would invalidate the current short-term bearish interpretation.