XRP, 20-Period Low Breakdown Amid Downtrend and Monitoring Capital Flow

XRP's closing price has broken below the previous 20-period low, with volatility expanding into the upper range of recent distributions. As the bearish price structure of lower highs and lower lows continues, the 4-hour ADX stands at 58.1, indicating that the strength of this downward trend remains robust. The 1-hour candle closed at 1.0566 on the 11th at 12:00 PM, and the ratio of BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP assets trading above their 4-hour 50-period moving average remains at 0%, showing that major assets are broadly positioned below their averages. In the derivatives market, the long/short ratio for top traders in Binance XRP perpetual futures was 2.40 as of 12:00 PM on the 11th, while the 1-hour account long/short ratio on OKX was 3.36; however, this represents the number of accounts only and does not necessarily indicate total position size or liquidations. Sustainability of this trend can be further assessed at the 1:00 PM 1-hour and 4-hour candle closes on the 11th.

Derivative Indicators and Capital Flow

In the derivatives market, the funding rate for Binance XRP perpetual futures at the last settlement (9:00 AM on the 11th) was 0.01%, with the expected funding rate for the 5:00 PM settlement also at 0.01%. The long/short ratio for top traders on Binance was 2.40 as of 12:00 PM on the 11th, and the OKX account long/short ratio was 3.36 at the same time, though this figure represents the ratio of accounts and not position size or liquidation data. Looking at capital flows, Altcoin Spot ETF market report shows a net outflow of 7.62 million USD from XRP, and the 24-hour crypto capital flow report also confirms net outflows alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Price Volatility and Momentum Slowdown

While recent volatility has pushed into the upper range and price movements have become more erratic, the narrowing of negative indicator values suggests that the sharp pace of the decline is tempering slightly. Although the price is attempting a short-term rebound by crossing above the daily VWAP, this deceleration signal does not immediately imply a trend reversal. With the trend strength still elevated on the 4-hour timeframe and the ratio of the four major assets above their 4-hour 50-period moving average remaining at 0%, the broader market remains under bearish pressure. The current cooling of the downtrend after breaking the previous low is more likely a temporary pause rather than the start of a recovery; whether the bearish price structure is effectively broken will be confirmed at the 1:00 PM 1-hour and 4-hour candle closes on the 11th.

Future Observation Criteria

The bearish price structure of lower highs and lower lows from the previous section remains unchanged. While a short-term deceleration has been observed, the price structure itself has not reversed, and the general market net outflow, including spot ETFs, points in the same direction as this bearish structure. Moving forward, the interpretation of the current bearish trend will depend on whether the 1:00 PM 1-hour close on the 11th can break above 1.0566 to establish a foothold for a rebound, or if it remains below this level, confirming the continuation of the decline.