Solana (SOL): Breaking below 20-candle low amid downward structure and altcoin spot ETF outflows

Since my last update, both the 4-hour and 1-hour candle closes at 1:00 PM on the 11th settled at 83.35, continuing the downward structure below the previous 20-candle low. The 4-hour ADX is at 46.3, indicating strong trend momentum, and the direction follows a price structure of consecutively lower highs and lower lows. The 1-hour Relative Volume (RVOL) remains at 0.43, suggesting that rather than a surge in sell-side execution, there is simply a lack of buy-side interest following the breakdown. Looking at external flows, TokenPost report on altcoin spot ETFs highlights $10.56 million in net outflows from Solana spot ETFs. While the Binance SOL perpetual futures long/short ratio for top traders is at 2.31 and the OKX futures account long/short ratio is at 3.60, these are based on account counts and do not reflect position size or liquidations. Although we see signs of slowing downward momentum as the daily close returns above the daily VWAP and the MACD histogram shows a narrowing negative gap, it is too early to call this a trend reversal as long as the price structure remains below the recent lows.

Trend Strength and Derivatives/ETF Flows

The 4-hour ADX at 46.3 indicates that trend strength remains clear, and the direction follows a structure of lower highs and lower lows. Regarding external fund flows, a TokenPost report indicates $10.56 million in net outflows from the Solana spot ETF market. In the derivatives market, the Binance SOL perpetual futures funding rate before the 9:00 AM settlement on the 11th was 0.0057%, with the next projected rate at 5:00 PM on the 11th being 0.0072%. As of 1:00 PM on the 11th, the top trader long/short ratio was 2.31. Meanwhile, for OKX futures, the funding rate before 9:00 AM on the 11th was -0.0011%, with the next projected rate at 5:00 PM on the 11th being 0.0014%. The account long/short ratio at 1:00 PM on the 11th was 3.60, though this is only based on the number of participating accounts and does not indicate position size or liquidations.

Binance SOL/USDT Spot. Final 1-hour candle close at 11-11 04:00 UTC (11-11 13:00 KST). Ongoing candles are not included. The confirmed closing price of 83.35 is below the lows of 82.61 and 81.34, and below the high of 83.68. A close above 83.68 is required to open up the upside. A close below 82.61 confirms further breakdown.

Binance SOL/USDT Spot. Final daily candle close at 11-11 00:00 UTC (11-11 09:00 KST). Ongoing candles are not included. The confirmed closing price of 83.35 is below the lows of 85.02 and 98.62, and below the high of 98.14. A close above 98.14 is required to open up the upside. A series of closes below those lows maintains the breakdown.

Volatility Expansion and Testing Support

The Average True Range (ATR%) remains in the upper range, reflecting wider candle price swings, but trading volume is quiet, remaining at less than half of typical levels. This suggests that the price drop wasn't driven by a fresh wave of massive selling, but rather by prices sliding lower due to thin buy-side depth. While we are seeing a return above the daily VWAP and signs of slowing downward momentum, without confirmed high-volume buying, the price will continue to face pressure to re-test support at these lower levels.

Structure Maintenance and Price Conditions

The downward structure mentioned in my previous post, characterized by staying below recent lows, continues to persist in this latest closing candle. As the structure of consecutive lower highs and lower lows remains intact, the net outflows from altcoin spot ETFs also point in the same direction as this bearish structure. While some signs of long-side bias were observed in the futures market, they have not been enough to reverse the broken price trend. This bearish outlook will only change if the next 1-hour close at 2:00 PM on the 11th, or the 4-hour close at 5:00 PM on the 11th, settles above 98.1400.