Ethereum: Price Structure and Market Flow Amid Downward Pressure

The 4-hour candle closing at 1:00 PM on the 11th finished at 2,062.76, continuing a bearish price structure of lower highs and lower lows. The 4-hour ADX stands at 53.3, maintaining strong downward momentum. Furthermore, the ratio of BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP assets trading above their 50-period 4-hour moving averages remains at 0%, indicating that major large-cap assets are broadly under pressure. Meanwhile, the 1-hour candle that closed at 3:00 PM on the 11th saw a rebound to 2,070.45, with a rising RSI low signaling a potential slowdown in downward momentum. However, since divergences alone do not confirm a trend reversal, it is necessary to wait and calmly observe the 1-hour candle closes at 4:00 PM or 5:00 PM on the 11th to see if there is a move above key price levels to signal an actual structural shift.

Derivative Indicators and Market Environment

The funding rate for Binance Ethereum perpetual futures settled just before 9:00 AM on the 11th was -0.0048%, and the estimated next funding rate as of 5:00 PM on the 11th is 0.0017%. The long/short ratio of top traders on Binance futures was 1.78 at both the 4-hour mark (1:00 PM) and 1-hour mark (3:00 PM) on the 11th. On OKX futures, the funding rate before the 9:00 AM settlement on the 11th was -0.0037%, with an estimated next funding rate of 0.0003% at 5:00 PM. The account long/short ratio for OKX futures was 3.17 on both 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, remaining above 3. However, this metric reflects the ratio of participating accounts and does not necessarily represent the actual scale of positions or liquidations. Meanwhile, regarding reports of an additional 1,000 ETH sale, it has been reported that an address suspected of being linked to the foundation sold approximately 1,000 ETH worth about $2.03 million, though the actual transacting entity has not been officially confirmed.

Binance ETH/USDT Spot. 1-hour candle confirmed close on 11-11 06:00 UTC (11-11 15:00 KST). In-progress candles are excluded. The confirmed close of 2,070.45 is above the high of 2,065.02 but below the highs of 2,109.09 and 2,118.52. A close above the 2,109.09 high is required to open the path for further upside.

Binance ETH/USDT Spot. 4-hour candle confirmed close on 11-11 04:00 UTC (11-11 13:00 KST). In-progress candles are excluded. The price has defended the $2,060 level; it is a point to watch whether it can hold the $2,006 support and rotate the trend toward $2,246.

The OKX line refers to the 4-hour account ratio, not the position size or liquidation volume. The last timestamp is 1:00 PM KST on the 11th.

Interpretation of Market Flow

With trend strength clearly maintained on the 4-hour timeframe and the price remaining below the daily Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), the price structure supports the dominance of downward pressure. Even though a warning of slowing short-term downward momentum has been detected, one must keep in mind that below the daily baseline supported by volume, this could merely be a temporary technical retracement. For a structural trend reversal to occur, the price must first reclaim the daily VWAP and then exceed a confirmed swing high. As the bearish edge persists, it is necessary to calmly monitor whether these recovery conditions are met in the 1-hour candle closes at 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM on the 11th.

Conditions to Watch

By failing to surpass 2,109.09 (the previous 1-hour high), the existing bearish dominance condition remains intact. The current price structure is still caught in a flow of lower highs and lower lows, and neither futures market trends nor the news regarding sales from foundation-linked addresses provide sufficient rebound momentum to immediately reverse this downward pressure. If the 1-hour candle closes above 2,109.09 at 4:00 PM or 5:00 PM on the 11th, the short-term bearish view can be shifted; conversely, if it closes below 2,006, the interpretation will lean toward a continued bearish trend.