XRP, Funding Rates and Social Sentiment amidst Downtrend

The 4-hour candle closing at 1 PM on the 11th recorded 1.0585, falling below the previous 20-period low and continuing a downtrend structure of lower highs and lower lows. The 4-hour ADX is at 59.3, indicating the strong momentum of the current downtrend, while the ratio of BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP trading above their 50-period moving average on the 4-hour timeframe remains at 0%, reflecting persistent market-wide pressure. While price action shows signs of slowing momentum—evidenced by a bullish RSI divergence as price lows decline, and a narrowing of the MACD histogram's negative bars—these should be viewed as warnings of a temporary bounce rather than a trend reversal until a swing break or significant range breakout occurs. Meanwhile, according to TokenPost reports, Santiment data shows the ratio of bearish social media comments for Ripple at 0.49, reflecting dampened investor sentiment.

Derivatives Market and Social Media Trends

The funding rate for Binance XRP perpetual futures settled at 0.01% on the 11th at 9 AM, with the next expected rate for the 5 PM settlement also at 0.01%. As of 2 PM on the 11th, the top trader long/short ratio on Binance futures was 2.45. At the same time, the OKX futures funding rate was 0.0056% for the 9 AM settlement, with the next expected rate at 0.0098%; the account long/short ratio was 3.37, though this metric represents account counts rather than position sizes or liquidations. Meanwhile, according to TokenPost reports, Santiment analysis shows the bearish social media comment ratio at 0.49, indicating that bearish sentiment outweighs bullish sentiment by nearly two to one. However, these online sentiment indicators may differ from actual market positions.

Binance XRP/USDT Spot. 1-hour candle closed 11-11 05:00 UTC (11-11 14:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. The closing price of 1.0546 is below the low of 1.0899, above the low of 1.0311, and below the high of 1.097. A close above 1.097 is required to open up further upside, while a close below 1.0311 could trigger a downside breakout.

Binance XRP/USDT Spot. 4-hour candle closed 11-11 04:00 UTC (11-11 13:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. The closing price of 1.0585 is below the low of 1.0764, above the low of 1.0311, and below the high of 1.1699. A close above 1.1699 is required to open up further upside, while a close below 1.0311 could trigger a downside breakout.

Volatility and Potential Momentum Slowdown

The Average True Range (ATR%) has moved into the upper range of its recent distribution, significantly widening candle movement. Bullish RSI divergence—where price lows drop while RSI lows rise—combined with the narrowing of MACD negative bars, suggests a potential slowdown in downward momentum. However, these technical signs are merely early warnings of reduced downward pressure; the existing bearish price structure remains valid until a clear breakout above major swing highs occurs. Since determining whether actual buying pressure is supporting the floor requires monitoring order books and real-time executions, it is more prudent to interpret this as a temporary consolidation within an environment of increased volatility rather than prematurely declaring a trend reversal.

Observation Criteria and Baseline

The observation conditions discussed in the previous post remain valid as their expiration time has not yet been reached, and the price structure continues to print lower highs and lower lows. While the dampened atmosphere in online social sentiment aligns with the price weakness, the positive funding rates and long-bias in the futures market are somewhat decoupled from the price action. Should the upcoming 1-hour or 4-hour candle on the 11th close below 1.0311 at 5 PM, it will reinforce the continuation of the downtrend. Conversely, a close above 1.1063 would serve as a pivot, invalidating the current bearish structural interpretation.