Solana (SOL): Market Trends Amid Persistent Downward Structure and Circle USDC Issuance Report

Since my last post, the 4-hour candle closed at 83.37 at 5 PM on the 11th, and the 1-hour candle closed at 82.98 at 6 PM, continuing a downward price structure that undercuts the previous 20-candle low. The 4-hour ADX is at 47.2, signaling strong trend momentum, while the direction continues to follow a lower-high and lower-low structure. The 1-hour Relative Volume (RVOL) remains at 0.47, indicating a lack of buying interest rather than a spike in selling, and the ratio of assets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP) trading above their 4-hour 50-period average is at 0%, showing dampened rebound momentum across the market. In the derivatives market, the Binance SOL perpetual futures long/short ratio for top traders was 2.33 as of 5 PM on the 11th, and the OKX futures account long/short ratio was 3.52 as of 6 PM on the 11th; however, these are based on account counts and do not reflect actual position sizing or liquidations. Meanwhile, reports of Circle issuing 500 million new USDC on Solana have surfaced, but since the actual circulation and market impact remain uncertain, it is worth watching whether the 7 PM 1-hour candle and 9 PM 4-hour candle closes can reverse the current downtrend.

Observing Trend Strength and Market Indicators

Solana's 4-hour ADX is at 47.2, showing strong trend intensity, with the direction pointing downward following a lower-high and lower-low price structure. The 1-hour RVOL remains at 0.47, suggesting that the recent price action is due to a lack of buying post-breakout rather than an explosion in selling volume; furthermore, the ratio of BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP trading above their 4-hour 50-period average is 0%, indicating weakened support across major assets. Looking at the derivatives market, the Binance SOL perpetual futures funding rate at the 5 PM settlement on the 11th was 0.0086%, with an expected rate of 0.0088% for 1 AM on the 12th, and the 4-hour top trader long/short ratio was 2.33 as of 5 PM on the 11th. At OKX, the 5 PM settlement funding rate was 0.0033%, with an expected rate of 0.0033% at 1 AM on the 12th, and the 1-hour account long/short ratio was 3.52 as of 6 PM on the 11th—though this is based on account counts, not position size or liquidation data. As for ecosystem news, reports of new Circle USDC issuance mention that 500 million USDC were newly minted on the Solana network, but actual circulation and market impact are still uncertain.

Binance SOL/USDT spot. 1-hour candle closed at 11-11 09:00 UTC (18:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. The closing price of 82.98 is above the low of 82.61, and below highs of 83.68 and 84.07. A close above 83.68 is needed to open up the upside, while a close below 82.61 would signal a breakdown.

Binance SOL/USDT spot. 4-hour candle closed at 11-11 08:00 UTC (17:00 KST). Ongoing candles are excluded. The price remains below the previous support of 85.02, maintaining a downward exploration trend. Support at the 81.34 low is critical, and to break out of the bearish trend, a close above the 90.01 high is required.

The OKX line refers to the 4-hour account ratio, not position size or liquidation. The final timestamp is 5 PM KST on the 11th.

Interpreting Mixed Indicators and Downward Pressure

Conflicting signals are observed within the price indicators. While short-term momentum indicators showed signs of slowing bearish pressure, any attempt at a retracement was immediately halted as the closing price fell back below the daily volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Candle volatility remains higher than recent distributions, but the low relative volume to support buying means there is no confirmed force pushing the price upward. Given that the basic price structure of lower highs and lower lows persists, along with the break of the 20-candle low, it is difficult to expect a trend reversal based on short-term slowing signals alone, and the current environment remains dominated by downward pressure.

Maintaining Scenarios and Decision Criteria

The downward structure and criteria for exploring further support levels discussed in my previous post remain valid. The price structure of consistently lower highs and lower lows, breaking the previous minimum, is solid, and the strength of the trend continues to support the downward movement. The long-biased ratio in the futures market and the news of new stablecoin issuance on the network have not yet translated into actual buying pressure capable of reversing the price structure, keeping them aligned with the current downward pressure. To change this bearish outlook, the daily candle must clearly close above the previous high of 98.14.