The Diverging Fates of Linea and YZY — Mid-August Token Unlock Analysis

Kitto

@kitto

In mid-August, the crypto market is bracing for $460 million in token unlocks. According to major data sources like CryptoRank, a significant volume is set to be released just this week. With on-chain stablecoin liquidity having recently dropped by about $7.7 billion, this will be a real test of how well individual projects can handle the pressure.

What's interesting is that the situation for each project is completely different. There's no need to worry about LINEA, which saw approximately 1.08 billion tokens unlocked on August 10. These tokens were sent directly to the Consensys foundation treasury and are locked for the next five years, making the actual selling pressure effectively zero.

The real concern lies elsewhere, specifically with YZY, which faces a $35.22 million unlock on August 16. With this release representing 22.8% of the current circulating supply, a short-term supply shock seems inevitable. Much like the case of PROVE, which saw its circulating supply double shortly after its August 5 unlock, newer tokens or L2 ecosystems with thin order books could experience significant volatility.

Market makers often hedge their risk starting eight days before an unlock, which frequently leads to a pattern where prices are suppressed leading up to the event, followed by a slight rebound on the actual day. It will be interesting to keep an eye on how Aptos, Starknet, and Arbitrum, which also have unlocks this week, perform!


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