The market is currently experiencing complex fluctuations as major geopolitical tailwinds collide with potential macro risks.

First, the news of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran led to a drop in global oil prices and stimulated expectations for a Fed rate cut, causing Bitcoin (BTC) to rally to $65,480 at one point. During this process, short positions betting on sustained high interest rates were liquidated en masse, resulting in approximately $246 million in forced liquidations. Essentially, the easing of geopolitical risk has provided some short-term relief to the market.

However, it is too early to relax, as macro challenges still loom. Market participants are remaining on the sidelines ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting, while keeping a close eye on the possibility of additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). If the BOJ actually raises rates, the resulting strength in the yen could trigger a large-scale unwinding of the yen carry trade, posing a risk of a liquidity crunch similar to the scenario that caused the Bitcoin flash crash in July 2024.

Adding to this, realistic assessments suggest that the passage of the U.S. House 'CLARITY Act' is unlikely to meet the initially anticipated July 4th deadline, which has somewhat dampened expectations for regulatory tailwinds.

Ultimately, the key point to watch over the next 72 hours is whether the rebound momentum gained from the easing of geopolitical tensions can withstand the double pressure of BOJ tightening concerns and the Fed meeting. Rather than getting excited about immediate short-term gains, it is time to prioritize risk management.