While all 17 typhoons that formed this year have bypassed the Korean Peninsula, Typhoon Soudel, the 18th of the season, is raising concerns with its significant intensity. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, Soudel formed near Guam on the morning of August 20 and is rapidly gaining strength as it moves west-northwest. With sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific—which fuel typhoon energy—remaining very high at around 28°C, it is expected to develop into a very strong typhoon by this weekend, August 23, with a central pressure of 935 hPa and maximum wind speeds of 49 meters per second.

The real reason for the anxiety is the extreme uncertainty in its predicted path once it passes Okinawa. Looking at the mid-term forecast models from meteorological agencies worldwide, the projected paths diverge by as much as 3,000 to 4,000 km starting after August 25, when Soudel reaches the waters southeast of Okinawa. This is because even a slight shift in the North Pacific High's influence over the Korean Peninsula could completely alter the steering currents that push or pull the typhoon.

While there is still a possibility that it may turn sharply toward southern China or the Japanese archipelago, we cannot yet rule out the possibility of a direct hit on the Korean Peninsula. After a summer that has been unusually quiet regarding typhoons, Soudel has emerged as the biggest variable that could disrupt weather patterns at the threshold of autumn. Now is the time to closely monitor the precise path adjustments released by the Korea Meteorological Administration through early next week.

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