With the recent 50% correction in the crypto market, concerns are growing that we might be repeating the brutal crypto winters of 2018 or 2022. However, unlike previous bear markets triggered by systemic internal collapses, this decline shows a structural difference, as it is primarily driven by external variables such as macroeconomic factors and the tech stock bubble.

The biggest difference is the absence of 'internal crypto contagion risk.' We are currently not hearing the internal cracks of cascading liquidations that defined the 2022 Terra-Luna collapse or the FTX bankruptcy. Blockchain infrastructure is functioning perfectly, and indicators like Bitcoin's 200-week moving average (MA) and miner capitulation signals are showing patterns similar to historical bottoming phases. In other words, it is more plausible to interpret this as a sensitive reaction to changes in the liquidity environment rather than a deterioration of fundamentals.

At the center of this liquidity distortion lies the 'AI bubble' that has dominated the market for the past few years. According to a perspective recently raised by Arthur Hayes, most of the increase in the Federal Reserve's money supply (M2) has been absorbed not by the crypto market, but by massive debt issuance in the AI industry (approximately $1.5 trillion). The liquidity-starved crypto market has naturally come under downward pressure, and we cannot rule out the possibility of the crypto market experiencing a temporary, correlated (risk-off) decline when the AI bubble eventually bursts due to high oil prices or valuation concerns in tech stocks.

Ultimately, this correction should be understood not as the end of crypto, but as a process of global liquidity redistribution based on the macroeconomic phase. While volatility may persist in the short term due to correlations with AI stocks or interest rate uncertainties, Bitcoin is likely to seek a rebound with much lighter momentum once central banks resume monetary easing policies following the macroeconomic shock. As the qualitative growth within the market has not stopped, it is time to calmly monitor the flow of external macro liquidity rather than getting swept away by immediate fear.