Skepticism is spreading both inside and outside the market regarding the White House's target of passing the CLARITY Act by July 4th.

Journalist Eleanor Terrett has analyzed that passage by July 4th is 'physically impossible,' citing the remaining 16 days of the Senate session, the need for coordination between the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees, and unresolved ethical debates. There are also concerns that if the bill is not processed before the August recess, the worst-case scenario could see legislation delayed until 2030.

Consequently, market experts and prediction markets are quickly lowering their expectations. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, has downgraded the probability of the bill passing this year from 75% to 60%, reflecting the tight Senate schedule. The prediction market Polymarket puts the probability of passage before August at 51%, while Kalshi offers a more conservative estimate of 30%, indicating a prevailing sense of realism.

Of course, the momentum behind the policy hasn't been completely lost. Recently, over 200 crypto companies joined forces to send a letter urging Senate leadership to hold an immediate vote, and Patrick Witt, the White House Director of Digital Assets, remains publicly optimistic. Expectations for long-term market impact also persist. Senator Tim Scott, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, projected that the clear regulatory framework provided by this bill could serve as a catalyst to bring in large-scale institutional capital, potentially growing the $3 trillion crypto market up to tenfold, to $30 trillion.

Ultimately, despite concerns over short-term delays, the market's confidence in the long-term institutional impact of the bill's passage appears firm. Rather than reacting to the fluctuations in short-term prediction markets, it is necessary to calmly observe how the bill's coordination within the Senate progresses before the summer recess.